Ex-Fed Economist Says to Resist Impulsive Moves on Inflation and Jobs Data: 'It Might Not Be Real'
Ex-Fed Economist Says to Resist Impulsive Moves on Inflation and Jobs Data: 'It Might Not Be Real'
Recent concerns have arisen about the reliability of market-moving statistics such as inflation and job data. The reported figures, it seems, might not accurately reflect the economic reality.
最近，人們開始擔心通貨膨脹和就業數據等市場波動統計數據的可靠性。看來，報告的數字可能無法準確反映經濟現實。
What Happened: Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm expressed concern about the situation. "They're not giving us an accurate picture. And again, where one would start to see this first is the precision of the estimates slips, and you get movements from months to months that aren't reality," she said, reported Business Insider.
發生了什麼：前美聯儲經濟學家克勞迪婭·薩姆對情況表示擔憂。“他們沒有給我們準確的畫面。再說一遍，人們首先會開始看到這一點的是估計值下滑的精度，而從幾個月到幾個月的變化是不現實的。” 據《商業內幕》報道，她說。
Sahm's comments highlight the significant decline in the response rates for surveys tracking key economic indicators. The consumer price index survey response rate dropped from 67% in 2016 to 53% in 2023, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
薩姆的評論突顯了追蹤關鍵經濟指標的調查的回覆率大幅下降。美國勞工統計局報告稱，消費者物價指數調查的回覆率從2016年的67％下降到2023年的53％。
Similarly, response rates for job opening surveys have plummeted from 66% to 31% over the same period. These falling rates are causing unease in markets that rely on these statistics to gauge the Federal Reserve's next move.
同樣，同期職位空缺調查的回覆率從66％下降到31％。利率下降使依賴這些統計數據來衡量美聯儲下一步行動的市場感到不安。
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Goldman Sachs highlighted in a recent report that these falling response rates can amplify uncertainty about the economy. It pointed out that job openings have been revised by an average of 180,000 over the last few years, which is more than triple the typical revision six years ago.
高盛在最近的一份報告中強調，這些下降的回應率會加劇經濟的不確定性。它指出，在過去幾年中，職位空缺平均修改了18萬個，是六年前通常修訂的三倍多。
Sahm cautioned investors from overreacting to the market uncertainties.
薩姆提醒投資者不要對市場的不確定性反應過度。
"Don't overreact to some sharp turn, because it might not be real or it could turn back really fast," she said.
她說：“不要對急轉彎反應過度，因爲它可能不是真實的，也可能很快回頭。”
Despite the decline in response rates, government statistics are still regarded as the highest quality data available. Gerald Perrins, a top official overseeing consumer price data at BLS, reassured that "our response rates are relatively high considering the large sample sizes that we do."
儘管答覆率有所下降，但政府統計數據仍被視爲現有的最高質量數據。負責監督勞工統計局消費者價格數據的高級官員傑拉爾德·佩林斯保證：“考慮到樣本量大，我們的回應率相對較高。”
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