If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. Although, when we looked at Wanhua Chemical Group (SHSE:600309), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Wanhua Chemical Group, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.14 = CN¥19b ÷ (CN¥256b - CN¥121b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).
Thus, Wanhua Chemical Group has an ROCE of 14%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Chemicals industry average of 5.5% it's much better.
Check out our latest analysis for Wanhua Chemical Group
Above you can see how the current ROCE for Wanhua Chemical Group compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report for Wanhua Chemical Group.
How Are Returns Trending?
When we looked at the ROCE trend at Wanhua Chemical Group, we didn't gain much confidence. Over the last five years, returns on capital have decreased to 14% from 52% five years ago. On the other hand, the company has been employing more capital without a corresponding improvement in sales in the last year, which could suggest these investments are longer term plays. It's worth keeping an eye on the company's earnings from here on to see if these investments do end up contributing to the bottom line.
On a separate but related note, it's important to know that Wanhua Chemical Group has a current liabilities to total assets ratio of 47%, which we'd consider pretty high. This can bring about some risks because the company is basically operating with a rather large reliance on its suppliers or other sorts of short-term creditors. Ideally we'd like to see this reduce as that would mean fewer obligations bearing risks.
The Bottom Line
Bringing it all together, while we're somewhat encouraged by Wanhua Chemical Group's reinvestment in its own business, we're aware that returns are shrinking. Yet to long term shareholders the stock has gifted them an incredible 185% return in the last five years, so the market appears to be rosy about its future. Ultimately, if the underlying trends persist, we wouldn't hold our breath on it being a multi-bagger going forward.
One more thing to note, we've identified 2 warning signs with Wanhua Chemical Group and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
While Wanhua Chemical Group isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
