Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED), might not be a large cap stock, but it led the NYSE gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. Less-covered, small caps tend to present more of an opportunity for mispricing due to the lack of information available to the public, which can be a good thing. So, could the stock still be trading at a low price relative to its actual value? Let's examine Medifast's valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there's still a bargain opportunity.
Check out our latest analysis for Medifast
Is Medifast Still Cheap?
Great news for investors – Medifast is still trading at a fairly cheap price according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. In this instance, I've used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock's cash flows. I find that Medifast's ratio of 6.72x is below its peer average of 26.53x, which indicates the stock is trading at a lower price compared to the Personal Products industry. Although, there may be another chance to buy again in the future. This is because Medifast's beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company's shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What kind of growth will Medifast generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you're looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it's the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Medifast, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn't help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? Although MED is currently trading below the industry PE ratio, the adverse prospect of negative growth brings about some degree of risk. Consider whether you want to increase your portfolio exposure to MED, or whether diversifying into another stock may be a better move for your total risk and return.
Are you a potential investor? If you've been keeping an eye on MED for a while, but hesitant on making the leap, I recommend you dig deeper into the stock. Given its current price multiple, now is a great time to make a decision. But keep in mind the risks that come with negative growth prospects in the future.
If you'd like to know more about Medifast as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Medifast (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.
If you are no longer interested in Medifast, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.