The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Shenzhen Tianyuan DIC Information Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300047) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for Shenzhen Tianyuan DIC Information Technology
What Is Shenzhen Tianyuan DIC Information Technology's Net Debt?
As you can see below, Shenzhen Tianyuan DIC Information Technology had CN¥1.61b of debt at September 2023, down from CN¥1.73b a year prior. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥134.3m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥1.47b.
How Healthy Is Shenzhen Tianyuan DIC Information Technology's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Shenzhen Tianyuan DIC Information Technology had liabilities of CN¥2.25b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥127.5m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥134.3m in cash and CN¥1.75b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥497.7m.
Of course, Shenzhen Tianyuan DIC Information Technology has a market capitalization of CN¥6.49b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Shenzhen Tianyuan DIC Information Technology shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (39.6), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.7 times the interest expense. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Worse, Shenzhen Tianyuan DIC Information Technology's EBIT was down 29% over the last year. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Shenzhen Tianyuan DIC Information Technology will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Shenzhen Tianyuan DIC Information Technology burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
To be frank both Shenzhen Tianyuan DIC Information Technology's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at staying on top of its total liabilities; that's encouraging. We're quite clear that we consider Shenzhen Tianyuan DIC Information Technology to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Shenzhen Tianyuan DIC Information Technology (of which 3 are potentially serious!) you should know about.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.