If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Typically, we'll want to notice a trend of growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and alongside that, an expanding base of capital employed. If you see this, it typically means it's a company with a great business model and plenty of profitable reinvestment opportunities. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Jade Bird Fire (SZSE:002960) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. To calculate this metric for Jade Bird Fire, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.11 = CN¥734m ÷ (CN¥8.2b - CN¥1.6b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).
Therefore, Jade Bird Fire has an ROCE of 11%. On its own, that's a standard return, however it's much better than the 5.0% generated by the Electronic industry.
View our latest analysis for Jade Bird Fire
In the above chart we have measured Jade Bird Fire's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
Unfortunately, the trend isn't great with ROCE falling from 29% five years ago, while capital employed has grown 375%. However, some of the increase in capital employed could be attributed to the recent capital raising that's been completed prior to their latest reporting period, so keep that in mind when looking at the ROCE decrease. The funds raised likely haven't been put to work yet so it's worth watching what happens in the future with Jade Bird Fire's earnings and if they change as a result from the capital raise. Also, we found that by looking at the company's latest EBIT, the figure is within 10% of the previous year's EBIT so you can basically assign the ROCE drop primarily to that capital raise.
On a side note, Jade Bird Fire has done well to pay down its current liabilities to 19% of total assets. So we could link some of this to the decrease in ROCE. Effectively this means their suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of the business, which reduces some elements of risk. Some would claim this reduces the business' efficiency at generating ROCE since it is now funding more of the operations with its own money.
Our Take On Jade Bird Fire's ROCE
To conclude, we've found that Jade Bird Fire is reinvesting in the business, but returns have been falling. Additionally, the stock's total return to shareholders over the last three years has been flat, which isn't too surprising. Therefore based on the analysis done in this article, we don't think Jade Bird Fire has the makings of a multi-bagger.
On a final note, we've found 2 warning signs for Jade Bird Fire that we think you should be aware of.
While Jade Bird Fire may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
