Affiliated Managers Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:AMG) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 4.1x might make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 17x and even P/E's above 33x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.
Recent times have been pleasing for Affiliated Managers Group as its earnings have risen in spite of the market's earnings going into reverse. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, possibly more than the market, which has repressed the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
View our latest analysis for Affiliated Managers Group
How Is Affiliated Managers Group's Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like Affiliated Managers Group's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 150% last year. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 1,520% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 25% per annum as estimated by the six analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 12% per annum, which paints a poor picture.
With this information, we are not surprised that Affiliated Managers Group is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.
The Key Takeaway
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
As we suspected, our examination of Affiliated Managers Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Affiliated Managers Group (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) you should be aware of.
If you're unsure about the strength of Affiliated Managers Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
