To avoid investing in a business that's in decline, there's a few financial metrics that can provide early indications of aging. When we see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) in conjunction with a declining base of capital employed, that's often how a mature business shows signs of aging. Trends like this ultimately mean the business is reducing its investments and also earning less on what it has invested. On that note, looking into Anhui Great Wall Military Industry (SHSE:601606), we weren't too upbeat about how things were going.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on Anhui Great Wall Military Industry is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.013 = CN¥38m ÷ (CN¥4.3b - CN¥1.3b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

Thus, Anhui Great Wall Military Industry has an ROCE of 1.3%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Aerospace & Defense industry average of 4.7%.

See our latest analysis for Anhui Great Wall Military Industry

While the past is not representative of the future, it can be helpful to know how a company has performed historically, which is why we have this chart above. If you'd like to look at how Anhui Great Wall Military Industry has performed in the past in other metrics, you can view this free graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Does the ROCE Trend For Anhui Great Wall Military Industry Tell Us?

There is reason to be cautious about Anhui Great Wall Military Industry, given the returns are trending downwards. About five years ago, returns on capital were 5.5%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Anhui Great Wall Military Industry becoming one if things continue as they have.

The Key Takeaway

All in all, the lower returns from the same amount of capital employed aren't exactly signs of a compounding machine. And long term shareholders have watched their investments stay flat over the last five years. That being the case, unless the underlying trends revert to a more positive trajectory, we'd consider looking elsewhere.

Like most companies, Anhui Great Wall Military Industry does come with some risks, and we've found 1 warning sign that you should be aware of.

For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.