Swire Pacific Limited (HKG:19) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 25% gain and recovering from prior weakness. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 5.6% in the last twelve months.
Following the firm bounce in price, Swire Pacific's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 13.7x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 8x and even P/E's below 4x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
Swire Pacific has been struggling lately as its earnings have declined faster than most other companies. It might be that many expect the dismal earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
See our latest analysis for Swire Pacific
Keen to find out how analysts think Swire Pacific's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
Swire Pacific's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 8.3%. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the seven analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 24% per year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 15% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's understandable that Swire Pacific's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.
What We Can Learn From Swire Pacific's P/E?
Swire Pacific's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
We've established that Swire Pacific maintains its high P/E on the strength of its forecast growth being higher than the wider market, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for a deterioration in earnings isn't great enough to justify a lower P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Swire Pacific that you need to take into consideration.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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