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国泰君安血液制品24年度策略:供需共振 新一轮增长周期即将启动

Guotai Junan Blood Products 24-year Strategy: Resonance between supply and demand, a new round of growth cycle is about to begin

Zhitong Finance ·  Dec 19, 2023 20:04

Production and sales continue to be strong, and there is no room for growth

The Zhitong Finance app learned that Guotai Junan released a research report saying that there have been positive changes in the blood products industry recently. The epidemic has contributed to the improvement of clinical awareness of blood products represented by Jing Jing, and that the construction of the 14th 5 plasma stations will also bring strong growth momentum to the industry in the short to medium term. Against the backdrop of continued strong terminal demand at this stage, companies in the expansion cycle of supply are expected to fully benefit, focusing on leading companies with many new pulp stations and new varieties that have been approved for listing one after another, maintaining the ratings of Tiantan Biotech (600161.SH) and Hualan Biotech (002007.SZ) to increase their holdings.

▍ Guotai Junan's main views are as follows:

1. A scarce track with extremely high entry barriers. Concentration continues to increase, and the leading advantage continues to expand

The blood products industry is highly regulated due to health and safety issues. The import of blood-derived blood products other than albumin is prohibited, and total volume control is imposed on domestic enterprises. The establishment of new plasma stations also has high threshold requirements. Extremely high entry barriers ensure a healthy competitive pattern in the industry.

In recent years, mergers and acquisitions activities within the industry have accelerated, and concentration has further increased. With a larger production scale, stronger ability to set up pulp stations, and a richer variety, the advantages of leading enterprises are expected to continue to expand.

2. Production and sales continue to be strong, and there is no room for growth

Thanks to the increase in supply-side single plasma collection stations year by year, raw plasma continues to grow. New varieties have been approved for the market one after another, and demand side clinical awareness of blood products continues to rise. Over the past ten years, batch issuance of major varieties such as albumin and stillin has continued to grow, and the sales scale in sample hospitals has also continued to expand, and the volume and price of major varieties such as albumin and stillin have risen sharply. Since a tight balance between supply and demand for blood products has been maintained over a long period of time, and production is limited by raw plasma, production cannot be expanded arbitrarily, so the risk of collection is low.

Currently, China's albumin is still dominated by imported products. There is still huge room for improvement in the per capita consumption of varieties such as Jingping in Europe and the US. Many small varieties have not yet been approved for listing, all of which provide sufficient room for the future growth of blood products companies. The gap between pulp extraction and use in most regions of the world also brings potential opportunities for domestic blood products to go overseas.

3. Supply and demand resonate, and a new growth cycle is about to begin

Recently, there have been positive changes in the industry. The epidemic has promoted the improvement of clinical awareness of blood products represented by Jing Jing. The successive approval for the construction of the 14th five plasma stations will also bring strong growth momentum to the industry in the short to medium term. Against the backdrop of continued strong terminal demand at this stage, companies whose supply is in an expansion cycle are expected to fully benefit, focusing on leading companies with many new pulp stations and new varieties that have been approved for listing one after another, maintaining Tiantan Biotech and Hualan Biotech's shareholding ratings.

4. Catalysts:

The sales data of the sample hospital exceeded expectations, the new pulp station was approved and built, and the new varieties were approved.

5. Risk Warning:

Industry demand fell short of expectations, and the scope of collection expanded.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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