The Zhitong Finance app learned that Fangzheng Securities released a research report saying that the real estate policy has continued to gain strength recently, and the current policy strength is gradually approaching 2014. Previously, it was constantly mentioned that 2024 will become a stable year for real estate, and the Science Park Index is expected to take advantage of the steady trend of real estate to generate excess profits. In terms of targets, it is recommended to focus on world-class high-tech park pilot operators: Zhangjiang Hi-Tech (600895.SH), etc.; established technology park operators with potential: Shibei Hi-Tech (600604.SH), etc.

▍ The main views of Fangzheng Securities are as follows:

The correlation between the Science Park Index and the Real Estate Index has weakened, and the sector has generally been adjusted to show excess earnings.

Analyzing the Wande Real Estate Industry Index and Wande Technology Park Concept Index, the correlation coefficient between the two was 0.8 from January 2010 to July 2021. In the context of the spread of credit risk in the real estate sector after July 2021, the correlation coefficient between the two fell to 0.7, and during this period, the Science Park Index showed excess income. As of November 30, 2023, the Science Park Index rose 25.9%, and the annualized yield reached 10.3%.

Science and technology parks have a strong ability to withstand cycles during a period of overall downturn in the industry.

1) The various profit channels of science and technology park operators have been able to maintain steady revenue during the industry's downturn.

2) Most science parks are set up under the leadership of the government. Shareholders have a strong background and a low risk probability.

3) The development of science and technology parks reflects the concept of a change in the country's industrial structure to an innovative industry, and there is support for development.

4) Science and technology park operators are deeply involved in national strategic development industries. Such industries have made major breakthroughs in the past, and there is still room for development in the future. Operators have opened up new incremental space through investment in enterprises.

There is a high degree of certainty about the development of enterprises introduced and invested in science and technology parks.

1) The central government proposed the industrial cluster model formed by science and technology parks as the main driving force for the development of strategic emerging industries.

2) By providing a series of services for resident enterprises, the park deepens understanding of business conditions, industry competition and partnerships, industry employment conditions, and the direction of popular fields in the industry, so as to select merit.

3) The park provides financial services to enterprises, promptly solves problems such as the large capital requirements and financing difficulties of start-ups in the early stages, and improves the survival rate of start-ups and the success rate of R&D.

4) Unlike traditional fund investment, the park specializes in developing some industries. From industry leaders to small and micro enterprises, and from upstream enterprises to downstream enterprises, it is within the scope of introduction. It is highly sensitive to industry information, and has access to first-hand resources to improve investment accuracy.

Investment advice: The development of science and technology parks is inevitable in the times, and it is expected that they will continue to generate excess profits.

The development of science and technology parks is the main expression of the changing trend of China's industrial structure. There is strong policy support, and the steady management capacity of science and technology parks is guaranteed. We continue to be optimistic about the good performance of science and technology parks in the declining real estate cycle. Furthermore, during the period of upward growth in the real estate sector, the Science Park Index performed even more strongly:

1) From 2012-1-6 to 2015-6-12, the real estate index yielded 311%, and the science park index yielded 451%;

2) From 2015-9-15 to 2015-12-22, the real estate index yielded 59%, and the science park index yielded 69%;

3) From 2018-10-18 to 2019-4-9, the real estate index yielded 58%, and the science park index yielded 105%.

Recently, the real estate policy has continued to gain strength. Currently, the strength of the policy is gradually approaching 2014. Until now, it has been repeatedly mentioned that 2024 will be the year of real estate stabilization, and the Science Park Index is expected to take advantage of the steady trend of real estate to outperform excess profits.

Risk warning:

Investment returns fall short of expectations; breakthroughs in science and innovation fall short of expectations; and real estate risks continue to spread.