Despite an already strong run, Art Group Holdings Limited (HKG:565) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 41% in the last thirty days. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 77%.
After such a large jump in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Art Group Holdings is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 6.1x, considering almost half the companies in Hong Kong's Real Estate industry have P/S ratios below 0.6x. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
See our latest analysis for Art Group Holdings
What Does Art Group Holdings' P/S Mean For Shareholders?
For example, consider that Art Group Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, Art Group Holdings would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.
In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 22%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 10% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 11% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Art Group Holdings' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Bottom Line On Art Group Holdings' P/S
The strong share price surge has lead to Art Group Holdings' P/S soaring as well. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.
Our examination of Art Group Holdings revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for Art Group Holdings that we have uncovered.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
