The market seemed underwhelmed by last week's earnings announcement from Gain Plus Holdings Limited (HKG:9900) despite the healthy numbers. We did some analysis to find out why and believe that investors might be missing some encouraging factors contained in the earnings.
View our latest analysis for Gain Plus Holdings
Examining Cashflow Against Gain Plus Holdings' Earnings
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
Over the twelve months to September 2023, Gain Plus Holdings recorded an accrual ratio of -0.30. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of HK$82m, well over the HK$45.8m it reported in profit. Gain Plus Holdings did see its free cash flow drop year on year, which is less than ideal, like a Simpson's episode without Groundskeeper Willie.
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Gain Plus Holdings.
Our Take On Gain Plus Holdings' Profit Performance
Happily for shareholders, Gain Plus Holdings produced plenty of free cash flow to back up its statutory profit numbers. Based on this observation, we consider it possible that Gain Plus Holdings' statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! And on top of that, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last year. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. If you'd like to know more about Gain Plus Holdings as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. You'd be interested to know, that we found 1 warning sign for Gain Plus Holdings and you'll want to know about this.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Gain Plus Holdings' profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
