With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7.5x MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE:MTG) may be sending very bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 17x and even P/E's higher than 33x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.
MGIC Investment could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. It seems that many are expecting the dour earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
View our latest analysis for MGIC Investment
How Is MGIC Investment's Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, MGIC Investment would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 8.0% decrease to the company's bottom line. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow EPS by an impressive 88% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would probably welcome the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to slump, contracting by 5.6% during the coming year according to the seven analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 10% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.
In light of this, it's understandable that MGIC Investment's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.
The Key Takeaway
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
As we suspected, our examination of MGIC Investment's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for MGIC Investment (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on MGIC Investment, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
