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Deluxe's (NYSE:DLX) Earnings Trajectory Could Turn Positive as the Stock Grows 5.8% This Past Week

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 27, 2023 05:01

Deluxe Corporation (NYSE:DLX) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 19% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 44%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.

On a more encouraging note the company has added US$51m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.

View our latest analysis for Deluxe

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the five years over which the share price declined, Deluxe's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 29% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 11% compound annual share price fall. The relatively muted share price reaction might be because the market expects the business to turn around.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:DLX Earnings Per Share Growth December 27th 2023

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Deluxe's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Deluxe, it has a TSR of -31% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Deluxe shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 34% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 5% per year over five years. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Deluxe (1 is a bit concerning) that you should be aware of.

We will like Deluxe better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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