CareDx, Inc (NASDAQ:CDNA) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 13% is also fairly reasonable.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, CareDx may still be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 2.2x, since almost half of all companies in the Biotechs industry in the United States have P/S ratios greater than 12.3x and even P/S higher than 54x are not unusual. However, the P/S might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Check out our latest analysis for CareDx
How Has CareDx Performed Recently?
CareDx hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. Perhaps the P/S remains low as investors think the prospects of strong revenue growth aren't on the horizon. If you still like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Keen to find out how analysts think CareDx's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/S?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as depressed as CareDx's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the industry decidedly.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 6.7%. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 75% overall rise in revenue, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with revenue decreasing 12% as estimated by the seven analysts watching the company. That's not great when the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 1,198%.
With this in consideration, we find it intriguing that CareDx's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/S has reached a floor yet with revenue going in reverse. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.
What Does CareDx's P/S Mean For Investors?
Even after such a strong price move, CareDx's P/S still trails the rest of the industry. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
It's clear to see that CareDx maintains its low P/S on the weakness of its forecast for sliding revenue, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Unless there's material change, it's hard to envision a situation where the stock price will rise drastically.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for CareDx that you should be aware of.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.