The Atlanticus Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ:ATLC) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 26%. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 47% in the last year.
Even after such a large jump in price, Atlanticus Holdings may still be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 7.5x, since almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 18x and even P/E's higher than 33x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.
With earnings that are retreating more than the market's of late, Atlanticus Holdings has been very sluggish. It seems that many are expecting the dismal earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. If not, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
View our latest analysis for Atlanticus Holdings
How Is Atlanticus Holdings' Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like Atlanticus Holdings' to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 44%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 32% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the four analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 3.7% over the next year. That's not great when the rest of the market is expected to grow by 10%.
With this information, we are not surprised that Atlanticus Holdings is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.
The Key Takeaway
Even after such a strong price move, Atlanticus Holdings' P/E still trails the rest of the market significantly. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
As we suspected, our examination of Atlanticus Holdings' analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
You always need to take note of risks, for example - Atlanticus Holdings has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
