When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 18x, you may consider The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR) as an attractive investment with its 13.1x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/E.
Timken certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company's earnings are going to fall away like everyone else's soon. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
View our latest analysis for Timken
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Timken would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 20% gain to the company's bottom line. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 34% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 5.9% as estimated by the nine analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10%, which is noticeably more attractive.
In light of this, it's understandable that Timken's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.
The Key Takeaway
Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
As we suspected, our examination of Timken's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Timken you should know about.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
