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AerCap Holdings N.V.'s (NYSE:AER) Share Price Not Quite Adding Up

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 29, 2023 18:56

When close to half the companies in the Trade Distributors industry in the United States have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1x, you may consider AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE:AER) as a stock to potentially avoid with its 2x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

See our latest analysis for AerCap Holdings

ps-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:AER Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry December 29th 2023

How Has AerCap Holdings Performed Recently?

Recent times have been advantageous for AerCap Holdings as its revenues have been rising faster than most other companies. The P/S is probably high because investors think this strong revenue performance will continue. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on AerCap Holdings.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the industry for P/S ratios like AerCap Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 14% gain to the company's revenues. Pleasingly, revenue has also lifted 58% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have definitely welcomed those medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 3.6% during the coming year according to the eight analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be similar to the 4.6% growth forecast for the broader industry.

In light of this, it's curious that AerCap Holdings' P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

What We Can Learn From AerCap Holdings' P/S?

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Seeing as its revenues are forecast to grow in line with the wider industry, it would appear that AerCap Holdings currently trades on a higher than expected P/S. When we see revenue growth that just matches the industry, we don't expect elevates P/S figures to remain inflated for the long-term. Unless the company can jump ahead of the rest of the industry in the short-term, it'll be a challenge to maintain the share price at current levels.

Having said that, be aware AerCap Holdings is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 2 of those can't be ignored.

If you're unsure about the strength of AerCap Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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