With a median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of close to 17x in the United States, you could be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Acuity Brands, Inc.'s (NYSE:AYI) P/E ratio of 18.1x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for Acuity Brands as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company's earnings trend will eventually fall in line with most others in the market. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
See our latest analysis for Acuity Brands
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There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like Acuity Brands' to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 3.2% decrease to the company's bottom line. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 80% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 6.0% during the coming year according to the eight analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 10%, which is noticeably more attractive.
With this information, we find it interesting that Acuity Brands is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Bottom Line On Acuity Brands' P/E
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that Acuity Brands currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Acuity Brands with six simple checks.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Acuity Brands. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.