If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for? Firstly, we'd want to identify a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and then alongside that, an ever-increasing base of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. So while Molina Healthcare (NYSE:MOH) has a high ROCE right now, lets see what we can decipher from how returns are changing.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on Molina Healthcare is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.25 = US$1.6b ÷ (US$15b - US$8.5b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).

Therefore, Molina Healthcare has an ROCE of 25%. In absolute terms that's a great return and it's even better than the Healthcare industry average of 9.9%.

See our latest analysis for Molina Healthcare

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Molina Healthcare compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

When we looked at the ROCE trend at Molina Healthcare, we didn't gain much confidence. Historically returns on capital were even higher at 33%, but they have dropped over the last five years. On the other hand, the company has been employing more capital without a corresponding improvement in sales in the last year, which could suggest these investments are longer term plays. It may take some time before the company starts to see any change in earnings from these investments.

Another thing to note, Molina Healthcare has a high ratio of current liabilities to total assets of 57%. This can bring about some risks because the company is basically operating with a rather large reliance on its suppliers or other sorts of short-term creditors. While it's not necessarily a bad thing, it can be beneficial if this ratio is lower.

Our Take On Molina Healthcare's ROCE

Bringing it all together, while we're somewhat encouraged by Molina Healthcare's reinvestment in its own business, we're aware that returns are shrinking. Yet to long term shareholders the stock has gifted them an incredible 182% return in the last five years, so the market appears to be rosy about its future. But if the trajectory of these underlying trends continue, we think the likelihood of it being a multi-bagger from here isn't high.

If you're still interested in Molina Healthcare it's worth checking out our FREE intrinsic value approximation to see if it's trading at an attractive price in other respects.

Molina Healthcare is not the only stock earning high returns. If you'd like to see more, check out our free list of companies earning high returns on equity with solid fundamentals.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.