Bitcoin Crash Looming? BitMEX's Arthur Hayes Predicts Rug Pull Dropping Price By 40%
Bitcoin Crash Looming? BitMEX's Arthur Hayes Predicts Rug Pull Dropping Price By 40%
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes projected a massive potential downside for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) in the upcoming months. He anticipated a significant correction of 20% to 30% by early March 2024.
BitMEX创始人亚瑟·海斯预计，在未来几个月中，比特币（加密货币：BTC）将面临巨大的潜在下行空间。他预计，到2024年3月初，将出现20％至30％的重大修正。
Hayes' analysis, which is based on his assessment of various economic indicators and market trends, pointed to several key factors that could influence Bitcoin's trajectory.
海斯的分析基于他对各种经济指标和市场趋势的评估，指出了可能影响比特币走势的几个关键因素。
He estimated the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) balance, which is the liquidity outlet for banks, could decline to $200 billion in early March. A declining Reverse Repo balance is seen as a warning sign of potential stress in short-term dollar funding markets.
他估计，作为银行流动性渠道的反向回购计划（RRP）余额可能在3月初降至2000亿美元。反向回购余额下降被视为短期美元融资市场潜在压力的警告信号。
Hayes was concerned that such a scenario arising in March could trigger risk-off behavior and sell-offs in volatile assets such as Bitcoin.
海耶斯担心，3月份出现的这种情况可能会引发比特币等波动性资产的避险行为和抛售。
Furthermore, the expiration of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) could lead to liquidity issues for banks, potentially further straining the financial markets.
此外，银行定期融资计划（BTFP）的到期可能会导致银行的流动性问题，从而可能进一步加剧金融市场的压力。
Adding to that, the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate decision in March looms large, with rate cuts likely moving markets.
除此之外，美联储在3月份的预期利率决定隐约可见，降息可能会推动市场。
Hayes speculated the impact of U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs could drive substantial fiat investment into these ETFs, propelling Bitcoin's price above $60,000 in the process.
海耶斯推测，在美国上市的现货比特币ETF的影响可能会推动对这些ETF的大量法定投资，在此过程中推动比特币的价格超过60,000美元。
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He still warned of a possible severe correction, a "dollar liquidity rug pull," that could lead to a 30% to 40% drop in Bitcoin's value.
他仍然警告说，可能会出现严重的调整，即 “美元流动性拉动”，这可能导致比特币价值下跌30％至40％。
In response to these predictions, Hayes planned to adjust his trading strategy accordingly.
针对这些预测，海耶斯计划相应地调整其交易策略。
In the short run, he intended to short the crypto market using Bitcoin puts. Following the anticipated turbulent period in March, Hayes planned to resume selling U.S. Treasury bills and acquire more Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,
在短期内，他打算使用比特币看跌期权做空加密市场。在三月份经历了预期的动荡时期之后，海耶斯计划恢复出售美国国库券并收购更多的比特币和其他加密货币，
The BitMEX founder's analysis highlighted the short-term potential for significant market corrections influenced by broader economic policies and liquidity factors.
这位 BitMEX 创始人的分析强调了受更广泛经济政策和流动性因素影响的短期市场可能出现重大调整。
His insights offered valuable considerations for investors and traders in the cryptocurrency space, as they plan their strategies in a potentially volatile market.
他的见解为加密货币领域的投资者和交易者提供了宝贵的考虑因素，因为他们在潜在动荡的市场中规划策略。
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继续阅读：比特币ETF障碍：现金兑换、硬分叉、授权参与者与美国证券交易委员会的披露讨论
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