For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers So we wouldn't blame long term Wharf Real Estate Investment Company Limited (HKG:1997) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 50% over a half decade. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 46%. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 18% in the last three months.
After losing 7.8% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
Check out our latest analysis for Wharf Real Estate Investment
Wharf Real Estate Investment isn't currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually expect strong revenue growth. Some companies are willing to postpone profitability to grow revenue faster, but in that case one does expect good top-line growth.
In the last five years Wharf Real Estate Investment saw its revenue shrink by 6.0% per year. While far from catastrophic that is not good. The share price decline at a rate of 8% per year is disappointing. Unfortunately, though, it makes sense given the lack of either profits or revenue growth. Without profits, its hard to see how shareholders win if the revenue keeps falling.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Wharf Real Estate Investment is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Wharf Real Estate Investment will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Wharf Real Estate Investment, it has a TSR of -39% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 13% in the twelve months, Wharf Real Estate Investment shareholders did even worse, losing 44% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 7% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Wharf Real Estate Investment has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
Of course Wharf Real Estate Investment may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.