CSG Systems International, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:CSGS) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19.6x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 16x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
CSG Systems International certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
View our latest analysis for CSG Systems International
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like CSG Systems International's to be considered reasonable.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 85%. As a result, it also grew EPS by 22% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has actually done a good job of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the eight analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 7.2% each year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 13% each year, which is noticeably more attractive.
With this information, we find it concerning that CSG Systems International is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Final Word
Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our examination of CSG Systems International's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for CSG Systems International that you need to take into consideration.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on CSG Systems International, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
