The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (HKG:1788) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 58% over a half decade. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 30%. Furthermore, it's down 13% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.

Since Guotai Junan International Holdings has shed HK$478m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

View our latest analysis for Guotai Junan International Holdings

We don't think that Guotai Junan International Holdings' modest trailing twelve month profit has the market's full attention at the moment. We think revenue is probably a better guide. As a general rule, we think this kind of company is more comparable to loss-making stocks, since the actual profit is so low. It would be hard to believe in a more profitable future without growing revenues.

In the last five years Guotai Junan International Holdings saw its revenue shrink by 3.5% per year. While far from catastrophic that is not good. With neither profit nor revenue growth, the loss of 10% per year doesn't really surprise us. The chance of imminent investor enthusiasm for this stock seems slimmer than Louise Brooks. Not that many investors like to invest in companies that are losing money and not growing revenue.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

If you are thinking of buying or selling Guotai Junan International Holdings stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Guotai Junan International Holdings, it has a TSR of -45% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Guotai Junan International Holdings shareholders are down 28% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 13%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 8% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Guotai Junan International Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.