随着冬季的过去，厄尔尼诺现象预计将逐渐减弱，这可能预示着4月份美国将迎来理想的种植季节。StoneX首席商品经济学家Arlan Suderman表示：“预计厄尔尼诺现象已经达到顶峰，并将在春季减弱。”The Zhitong Finance App learned that on Monday local time, US corn futures fell to a low of more than three years and soybean futures fell to a two-year low due to a sharp drop in crude oil prices and the agricultural products market. The energy market can influence grain futures because corn is used to make ethanol and soybean oil is used to make biofuel. Analysts say technical sell-offs and favorable rainfall in Brazilian crop-growing regions have also helped lower food prices.
The March contract for corn on the Chicago Futures Exchange closed down 1.4% to 4.55 US dollars/bushels, the lowest price since December 2020, while the March soybean contract closed down 0.8% to 12.455 US dollars/bushels, the lowest price since December 2021. The March wheat contract closed down 3.2% to $5.965 per bushel.
The trader position report released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday shows that as Brazil's growing regions experienced sufficient rainfall, fund traders are increasing their short positions.
As winter passes, the El Niño phenomenon is expected to gradually subside, which may indicate an ideal planting season in the US in April. “The El Niño phenomenon is expected to peak and weaken in the spring,” said Arlan Suderman, chief commodity economist at StoneX.
