The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that the satellite communications industry, especially the low-orbit Internet satellite sector, is currently reaching an industrial singularity from 0 to 1. The bank believes that as the number of low-orbit satellites deployed and networked increases in the future, the relevant supporting regulatory policies are clear, and the closed-loop business model matures, more and more satellite communication terminals will appear, and eventually the construction of low-orbit satellite internet with wide coverage, large capacity, and high speed will be realized. It is recommended to lay out the layout from three dimensions: 1) prioritize finding definitive opportunities in the industrial chain; 2) start with the end to explore suitable long-term layout directions; 3) seize opportunities to catalyze milestone events.
The views of Huacheng Securities are as follows:
There is still a certain gap between China's low-orbit satellite Internet construction progress and the world's advanced level.
In recent years, the low-orbit satellite Internet industry has entered a period of rapid development, driven by leading overseas companies. Industry leaders, led by Starlink, have built a giant constellation composed of thousands of satellites in space through continuous star deployment, and have begun to provide ubiquitous network services, and the commercial ecosystem is gradually maturing and sustainable. The low-orbit satellite Internet is a communication network using a constellation composed of low-orbit communication satellites as access nodes to provide connection services. Compared with terrestrial networks, it has obvious coverage and reach advantages. Currently, due to the lag in the overall development of the low-orbit satellite communication industry in China, there is a certain gap between the construction progress of low-orbit satellite Internet and the world's advanced level.
The development of low-orbit satellite communications in China may be mainly constrained by four major factors.
The bank believes that the four major factors include: 1) satellite manufacturing costs are relatively high, and manufacturing efficiency is still far from meeting batch commercialization requirements; 2) the cost of satellite launches is relatively high, the number of flights is relatively small, and the demand for batch deployment still needs to be further satisfied; 3) the supply chain system mainly adopts a major project design model, and maturity still needs to be improved; 4) the business model has not yet formed a closed loop, and there are certain difficulties in sustainable investment. These four major factors are not only the main reasons that jointly constrain the further development of commercial low-orbit satellite communications, but they also influence each other. The interaction of the four major factors affects each other. Therefore, in order to further promote the rapid development of low-orbit satellite communications, it is necessary to start from the entire industrial chain system, upgrade it systematically, and eliminate restrictions.
Four industrial changes reveal the imminent singularity of the low-orbit satellite communications industry.
1) Discussion on planning: Central and local policies work together to accelerate the development of the low-orbit satellite communication industry. The policy support direction of governments at all levels from the central government to local levels has become more clear, and various forms of policies and support opinions have been introduced to push the industry into a stage of rapid development; 2) On production: Low-cost mass production is gradually being implemented. At present, China has optimized and innovated the four low-orbit satellite production processes of design, model selection, R&D, and manufacturing, gradually reducing star-making costs and improving mass production efficiency; 3) Regarding launch: there is a gap in capacity, and it is actively catching up in terms of rocket technology and launch resources. In terms of recent industrial development and future planning, China's rocket industry is showing a trend of vigorous pursuit; 4) On application: Early exploration has been very effective. The bank believes that as the number of low-orbit satellites deployed and networked increases in the future, the relevant supporting regulatory policies are clear, and the closed-loop business model matures, more and more satellite communication terminals will appear, and eventually the construction of low-orbit satellite internet with wide coverage, high capacity, and high speed will be realized.
Low-orbit satellite communication networking systems are complex, and the industrial chain has a large space to grow, involving many listed companies.
The composition of satellite communication systems is complex, and the networking scale is huge. Generally speaking, it can be divided into three parts: space segment, ground segment, and user segment, which includes various complete segments such as the satellite industry, rocket industry, communications industry, and consumer electronics industry. The three-stage structure will include the upper, middle, and downstream industries that are independent and partially reused. Therefore, satellite communication is a very large industrial category. The industrial chain is long and the market space is large. The development of its industrial economy has a profound impact on the national economy. There are many companies involved in low-orbit satellite communication related businesses in A-shares.
Based on the above dimensional analysis, the bank focuses on recommending Chengchang Technology (leading enterprise for space-borne and terrestrial satellite communication phased array T/R chips). It is recommended to focus on Haige Communications (002465.SZ) (comprehensive layout of the satellite communication field), ICT Mobile (688387.SH) (deep participation in China's low-orbit satellite Internet construction), creative information (300366.SZ) (satellite communication payload products), Zhenyou Technology (688418.SH) (main participants in domestic satellite core networks), Zhenlei Technology (688270.SH) (domestic satellite communication field) core supplier of RF, power, and ADC/DAC chips).
Risk warning: Macroeconomic development falls short of expectations, the country's low-orbit satellite communications development plans have undergone major changes, satellite manufacturing and launch progress falls short of expectations, and downstream application development falls short of expectations.