88% Chance Of Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval, Say Prediction Market Traders: $1.4M Bet Looking For SEC's Green Light
88% Chance Of Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval, Say Prediction Market Traders: $1.4M Bet Looking For SEC's Green Light
The odds for a spot Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval by Jan. 15 stand at 88%, according to crypto prediction market Polymarket.
根據加密貨幣預測市場Polymarket的數據，截至1月15日，現貨比特幣（CRYPTO: BTC）交易所交易基金（ETF）批准的機率爲88%。
What Happened: According to Polymarket data, the much-awaited ETF is 88% is likely to be approved by Jan. 15, with a 77% chance of a Wednesday approval at the time of writing.
據Polymarket數據，備受期待的ETF有88%的幾率在1月15日前獲批准，寫作時有77%的機會在週三獲得批准。
The main market attracted more than $8.5 million in trading volume, making it the most traded prediction market on the platform. The anticipation of a possible approval attracted whales to the platform, with a single trader looking to cash in $1.4 million in case a spot ETF gets the green light.
主要市場吸引了超過850萬美元的交易量，使其成爲平台上交易最多的預測市場。可能獲批准的期望吸引了大戶進入該平台，一位單獨的交易者計劃在現貨ETF獲得綠燈的情況下賺取140萬美元。
A single trader has bet $1.4 million on Bitcoin ETF approval.@kiwifruitzzz what do you know? pic.twitter.com/NfuMLe4zTB
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 9, 2024
一名單獨的交易者賭注了140萬美元來獲得比特幣ETF的批准。 @kiwifruitzzz 你知道什麼？ pic.twitter.com/NfuMLe4zTB
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) 2024年1月9日
The Tuesday hack incident when the X account of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was breached to falsely announce ETF approval, saw odds of an approval whipsaw between 100% and as low as 42%.
週二的黑客事件中，美國證券交易委員會的X帳戶被攻破，誤報ETF獲得批准，導致獲得批准的機會在100%和最低的42%之間震盪。
Also Read: Exploring The Impact: How Spot Bitcoin ETF Approvals Could Reshape The Crypto Landscape
還需了解：探索影響：現貨比特幣ETF批准如何重塑加密貨幣領域。
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, approval is penciled in for Wednesday.
據彭博ETF分析師Eric Balchunas稱，ETF獲批預計於週三。
Happy ETF Approval Day (for real this time) to all those who celebrate.. as far as we know it's ALL SYSTEMS GO. Most likely is we see formal approvals ballpark 4-6pm today with the Derby starting on Thursday. We are ready at Bloomberg, getting DES pages up as we speak. pic.twitter.com/sh8aoYypdg
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 10, 2024
對於所有慶祝ETF批准日的人來說，今天是真正的節日。據我們所知，現在一切都在按計劃進行。最有可能的情況是，正式批准時間在今天下午4-6點之間，而Derby則將於週四開始。我們在彭博社準備就緒，正在製作關於DES的頁面。 pic.twitter.com/sh8aoYypdg
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) 2024年1月10日
Prediction market traders seem to agree, although an outside chance of a delay remains — the 10% spread between the odds for an approval on Wednesday and before Jan.15 indicate traders see an outside chance of a last-ditch delay by the SEC.
預測市場交易員似乎也同意這一點，儘管存在延遲的外部機會——週三和1月15日之前獲批准機率之間的10%差距表明交易員認爲美國證券交易委員會可能會拖延到最後一刻。
Read Next: VanEck CEO Anticipates Spot Bitcoin ETF To Start Trading Thursday, Bitcoin Holds Above $46,000
閱讀下文：VanEck首席執行官預計現貨比特幣ETF將於週四開始交易，比特幣在46,000美元以上。
Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock