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Heilongjiang Agriculture (SHSE:600598) Shareholders Have Earned a 9.3% CAGR Over the Last Five Years

Heilongjiang Agriculture (SHSE:600598) Shareholders Have Earned a 9.3% CAGR Over the Last Five Years

在過去五年中,黑龍江農業(SHSE: 600598)股東的複合年增長率爲9.3%
Simply Wall St ·  01/19 18:06

Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. Buying under-rated businesses is one path to excess returns. To wit, the Heilongjiang Agriculture share price has climbed 36% in five years, easily topping the market return of 21% (ignoring dividends).

選股者通常在尋找表現優於大盤的股票。收購被低估的企業是獲得超額回報的一種途徑。換句話說,黑龍江農業股價在五年內上漲了36%,輕鬆超過了21%的市場回報率(不計股息)。

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

現在,公司的基本面也值得一看,因爲這將幫助我們確定長期股東回報是否與基礎業務的表現相匹配。

View our latest analysis for Heilongjiang Agriculture

查看我們對黑龍江農業的最新分析

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

在他的文章中 格雷厄姆和多茲維爾的超級投資者 沃倫·巴菲特描述了股價如何並不總是能合理地反映企業的價值。通過比較每股收益(EPS)和股價隨時間推移的變化,我們可以了解投資者對公司的態度如何隨着時間的推移而變化。

During five years of share price growth, Heilongjiang Agriculture actually saw its EPS drop 0.3% per year.

在五年的股價增長中,黑龍江農業的每股收益實際上每年下降0.3%。

So it's hard to argue that the earnings per share are the best metric to judge the company, as it may not be optimized for profits at this point. Therefore, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movements.

因此,很難說每股收益是判斷公司的最佳指標,因爲目前可能尚未針對利潤進行優化。因此,值得研究其他指標來了解股價走勢。

On the other hand, Heilongjiang Agriculture's revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 9.0% over the last five years. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth.

另一方面,黑龍江農業的收入增長良好,在過去五年中複合增長率爲9.0%。在這種情況下,該公司可能會犧牲當前的每股收益來推動增長。

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

下圖描繪了收入和收入隨着時間的推移而發生的變化(點擊圖片顯示確切的數值)。

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SHSE:600598 Earnings and Revenue Growth January 19th 2024
SHSE: 600598 收益和收入增長 2024 年 1 月 19 日

If you are thinking of buying or selling Heilongjiang Agriculture stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

如果您正在考慮買入或賣出黑龍江農業股票,則應在其資產負債表上查看這份免費的詳細報告。

What About Dividends?

那股息呢?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Heilongjiang Agriculture the TSR over the last 5 years was 56%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

重要的是要考慮任何給定股票的股東總回報率和股價回報率。儘管股價回報率僅反映股價的變化,但股東總回報率包括股息的價值(假設已進行再投資)以及任何折扣融資或分拆的收益。可以說,股東總回報率更全面地描述了股票產生的回報。我們注意到,黑龍江農業在過去5年的股東總回報率爲56%,好於上述股價回報率。而且,猜測股息支付在很大程度上解釋了這種分歧是沒有好處的!

A Different Perspective

不同的視角

Heilongjiang Agriculture shareholders are down 16% over twelve months (even including dividends), which isn't far from the market return of -17%. The silver lining is that longer term investors would have made a total return of 9% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data remains strong, and the share price is simply down on sentiment, then this could be an opportunity worth investigating. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Heilongjiang Agriculture , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

黑龍江農業股東在十二個月內下跌了16%(甚至包括股息),與-17%的市場回報率相差不遠。一線希望是,長期投資者將在五年內獲得每年9%的總回報。如果基本面數據保持強勁,而股價僅因市場情緒而下跌,那麼這可能是一個值得研究的機會。我發現將長期股價視爲業務績效的代表非常有趣。但是,要真正獲得見解,我們還需要考慮其他信息。例如,投資風險的幽靈無處不在。我們已經確定了黑龍江農業的一個警告信號,了解它們應該是您投資過程的一部分。

We will like Heilongjiang Agriculture better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

如果我們看到一些重大的內幕收購,我們會更喜歡黑龍江農業。在我們等待的同時,請查看這份免費清單,列出了最近有大量內幕收購的成長型公司。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在中國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報率。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St 的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並非旨在提供財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。華爾街只是沒有持有上述任何股票的頭寸。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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