Global Top E-Commerce Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002640) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 25% share price drop in the last month. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 39% in that time.
Since its price has dipped substantially, Global Top E-Commerce's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.7x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the Multiline Retail industry in China, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 2x and even P/S above 5x are quite common. However, the P/S might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Check out our latest analysis for Global Top E-Commerce
What Does Global Top E-Commerce's P/S Mean For Shareholders?
Global Top E-Commerce has been doing a decent job lately as it's been growing revenue at a reasonable pace. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is low because investors think this good revenue growth might actually underperform the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the industry for P/S ratios like Global Top E-Commerce's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 4.0% gain to the company's revenues. Ultimately though, it couldn't turn around the poor performance of the prior period, with revenue shrinking 58% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 72% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this information, we are not surprised that Global Top E-Commerce is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. However, we think shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.
The Key Takeaway
The southerly movements of Global Top E-Commerce's shares means its P/S is now sitting at a pretty low level. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
As we suspected, our examination of Global Top E-Commerce revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term is contributing to its low P/S, given the industry is set to grow. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises either. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 1 warning sign for Global Top E-Commerce that we have uncovered.
If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
