Shareholders might have noticed that Hanmi Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:HAFC) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.3% to US$16.75 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$251m and statutory earnings per share of US$2.62. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
See our latest analysis for Hanmi Financial
Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from five analysts covering Hanmi Financial is for revenues of US$242.9m in 2024. This implies a noticeable 3.3% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 24% to US$2.01 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$259.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.38 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.
The consensus price target fell 5.9% to US$19.20, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hanmi Financial at US$22.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$18.50. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.3% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 10% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Hanmi Financial is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hanmi Financial. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Hanmi Financial analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Hanmi Financial (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
