ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s (NYSE:ZTO) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.4x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 17x and even P/E's above 33x are quite common. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
ZTO Express (Cayman) certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, possibly more than the market, which has repressed the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
See our latest analysis for ZTO Express (Cayman)
Does Growth Match The Low P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, ZTO Express (Cayman) would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 36% gain to the company's bottom line. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 59% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 8.3% each year during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 12% each year growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's understandable that ZTO Express (Cayman)'s P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.
The Final Word
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
We've established that ZTO Express (Cayman) maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast growth being lower than the wider market, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with ZTO Express (Cayman), and understanding should be part of your investment process.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
