Today is shaping up negative for Malibu Boats, Inc. (NASDAQ:MBUU) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

Following the downgrade, the consensus from seven analysts covering Malibu Boats is for revenues of US$893m in 2024, implying a stressful 26% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to plummet 22% to US$2.47 in the same period. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.88 in 2024. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Malibu Boats' prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

View our latest analysis for Malibu Boats

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 15% to US$50.14.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 46% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 18% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.3% per year. It's pretty clear that Malibu Boats' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. With a serious cut to this year's expectations and a falling price target, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were becoming wary of Malibu Boats.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Malibu Boats going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.