The Topsec Technologies Group Inc. (SZSE:002212) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 30%. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 39% in that time.
Following the heavy fall in price, Topsec Technologies Group may be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 2.2x, since almost half of all companies in the Software industry in China have P/S ratios greater than 5x and even P/S higher than 8x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/S.
View our latest analysis for Topsec Technologies Group
How Has Topsec Technologies Group Performed Recently?
Topsec Technologies Group certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue more than most other companies. It might be that many expect the strong revenue performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the share price, and thus the P/S ratio. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?
In order to justify its P/S ratio, Topsec Technologies Group would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the industry.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow revenues by a handy 8.9% last year. Still, lamentably revenue has fallen 43% in aggregate from three years ago, which is disappointing. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the seven analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 42% over the next year. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to only expand by 35%, which is noticeably less attractive.
With this information, we find it odd that Topsec Technologies Group is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.
What We Can Learn From Topsec Technologies Group's P/S?
Topsec Technologies Group's P/S looks about as weak as its stock price lately. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
A look at Topsec Technologies Group's revenues reveals that, despite glowing future growth forecasts, its P/S is much lower than we'd expect. There could be some major risk factors that are placing downward pressure on the P/S ratio. At least price risks look to be very low, but investors seem to think future revenues could see a lot of volatility.
Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Topsec Technologies Group with six simple checks on some of these key factors.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Topsec Technologies Group, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
