By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. Just take a look at Hunan Valin Steel Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000932), which is up 11%, over three years, soundly beating the market decline of 30% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 14% , including dividends .
The past week has proven to be lucrative for Hunan Valin Steel investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's three-year performance.
View our latest analysis for Hunan Valin Steel
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Over the last three years, Hunan Valin Steel failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 8.7% (annualized).
The strong decline in earnings per share suggests the market isn't using EPS to judge the company. So we'll need to take a look at some different metrics to try to understand why the share price remains solid.
Interestingly, the dividend has increased over time; so that may have given the share price a boost. Sometimes yield-chasing investors will flock to a company if they think the dividend can grow over time. On top of that, revenue grew at a rate of 11% per year, and it's likely investors interpret that as pointing to a brighter future.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Hunan Valin Steel
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Hunan Valin Steel the TSR over the last 3 years was 27%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that Hunan Valin Steel shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 14% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 6%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Hunan Valin Steel better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Hunan Valin Steel , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Of course Hunan Valin Steel may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
