Xilong Scientific Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002584) shares have retraced a considerable 33% in the last month, reversing a fair amount of their solid recent performance. Longer-term shareholders will rue the drop in the share price, since it's now virtually flat for the year after a promising few quarters.
Although its price has dipped substantially, Xilong Scientific's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.6x might still make it look like a buy right now compared to the Chemicals industry in China, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 2x and even P/S above 4x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the reduced P/S.
See our latest analysis for Xilong Scientific
How Has Xilong Scientific Performed Recently?
With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Xilong Scientific has been doing very well. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to dwindle, which has kept the P/S suppressed. Those who are bullish on Xilong Scientific will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Xilong Scientific's earnings, revenue and cash flow.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/S?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the industry for P/S ratios like Xilong Scientific's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 61% gain to the company's top line. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow revenue by 40% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have definitely welcomed those medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 27% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.
In light of this, it's understandable that Xilong Scientific's P/S sits below the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting to see the recent limited growth rates continue into the future and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.
The Key Takeaway
Xilong Scientific's recently weak share price has pulled its P/S back below other Chemicals companies. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.
Our examination of Xilong Scientific confirms that the company's revenue trends over the past three-year years are a key factor in its low price-to-sales ratio, as we suspected, given they fall short of current industry expectations. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Xilong Scientific (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.