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More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Guangxi Hechi Chemical Co., Ltd's (SZSE:000953) Shares After Tumbling 27%

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 1 17:57

The Guangxi Hechi Chemical Co., Ltd (SZSE:000953) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 27%. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 38% share price drop.

Even after such a large drop in price, when almost half of the companies in China's Chemicals industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2x, you may still consider Guangxi Hechi Chemical as a stock not worth researching with its 8.3x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SZSE:000953 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 1st 2024

How Guangxi Hechi Chemical Has Been Performing

Revenue has risen firmly for Guangxi Hechi Chemical recently, which is pleasing to see. It might be that many expect the respectable revenue performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Guangxi Hechi Chemical, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For Guangxi Hechi Chemical?

Guangxi Hechi Chemical's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 9.4%. Ultimately though, it couldn't turn around the poor performance of the prior period, with revenue shrinking 26% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 27% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Guangxi Hechi Chemical is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Guangxi Hechi Chemical's P/S?

Even after such a strong price drop, Guangxi Hechi Chemical's P/S still exceeds the industry median significantly. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Guangxi Hechi Chemical revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Guangxi Hechi Chemical that you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Guangxi Hechi Chemical's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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