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AA Industrial Belting (Shanghai) Co.,Ltd's (SHSE:603580) 29% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 1 18:53

AA Industrial Belting (Shanghai) Co.,Ltd (SHSE:603580) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 29% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 35% share price drop.

Although its price has dipped substantially, you could still be forgiven for thinking AA Industrial Belting (Shanghai)Ltd is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 9.3x, considering almost half the companies in China's Machinery industry have P/S ratios below 2.5x. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:603580 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 1st 2024

How AA Industrial Belting (Shanghai)Ltd Has Been Performing

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at AA Industrial Belting (Shanghai)Ltd over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for AA Industrial Belting (Shanghai)Ltd, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

AA Industrial Belting (Shanghai)Ltd's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 19% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 24% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 28% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that AA Industrial Belting (Shanghai)Ltd's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

AA Industrial Belting (Shanghai)Ltd's shares may have suffered, but its P/S remains high. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of AA Industrial Belting (Shanghai)Ltd revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for AA Industrial Belting (Shanghai)Ltd that you should be aware of.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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