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Is Baoding Technology (SZSE:002552) A Risky Investment?

Is Baoding Technology (SZSE:002552) A Risky Investment?

宝鼎科技(深交所:002552)是风险投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  02/02 00:25

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Baoding Technology Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002552) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

传奇基金经理李露(由查理·芒格支持)曾经说过:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受永久的资本损失。”因此,很明显,当你考虑任何给定股票的风险时,你需要考虑债务,因为过多的债务会使公司陷入困境。我们注意到,宝鼎科技股份有限公司(深圳证券交易所:002552)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但真正的问题是这笔债务是否使公司面临风险。

When Is Debt Dangerous?

债务何时危险?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

债务为企业提供帮助,直到企业难以用新的资本或自由现金流还清债务。在最坏的情况下,如果公司无法向债权人付款,它可能会破产。但是,更常见(但仍然昂贵)的情况是,公司必须以低廉的股价稀释股东,这样才能控制债务。当然,许多公司使用债务为增长提供资金,而不会产生任何负面后果。在考虑企业使用多少债务时,要做的第一件事是将其现金和债务放在一起考虑。

How Much Debt Does Baoding Technology Carry?

保鼎科技背负了多少债务?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2023 Baoding Technology had debt of CN¥1.13b, up from CN¥981.3m in one year. However, it also had CN¥646.3m in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥487.5m.

您可以点击下图查看更多详情,该图片显示,截至2023年9月,保鼎科技的债务为11.3亿元人民币,高于一年的9.813亿元人民币。但是,它也有6.463亿元的现金,因此其净负债为4.875亿元人民币。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:002552 Debt to Equity History February 2nd 2024
SZSE: 002552 2024 年 2 月 2 日债务与股权比率历史记录

How Healthy Is Baoding Technology's Balance Sheet?

宝鼎科技的资产负债表有多健康?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Baoding Technology had liabilities of CN¥2.07b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥313.4m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥646.3m as well as receivables valued at CN¥1.41b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥328.0m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

根据上次报告的资产负债表,保鼎科技在12个月内到期的负债为20.7亿元人民币,12个月以后到期的负债为3.134亿元人民币。除这些债务外,它有6.463亿元的现金以及价值14.1亿元人民币的应收账款将在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额为3.28亿元人民币,比现金和短期应收账款的总和多出3.28亿元人民币。

Of course, Baoding Technology has a market capitalization of CN¥5.32b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Baoding Technology will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

当然,保鼎科技的市值为532亿元人民币,因此这些负债可能是可以控制的。但是,有足够的负债,我们肯定会建议股东今后继续监督资产负债表。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但是你不能完全孤立地看待债务;因为宝鼎科技需要收益来偿还债务。因此,如果你想进一步了解其收益,可能值得看看这张长期收益趋势图。

In the last year Baoding Technology wasn't profitable at an EBIT level, but managed to grow its revenue by 363%, to CN¥2.9b. That's virtually the hole-in-one of revenue growth!

去年,保鼎科技在息税前利润水平上没有盈利,但成功将其收入增长了363%,达到29亿元人民币。这实际上是收入增长的一杆进洞!

Caveat Emptor

Caveat Emptor

Despite the top line growth, Baoding Technology still had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. Indeed, it lost CN¥53m at the EBIT level. When we look at that and recall the liabilities on its balance sheet, relative to cash, it seems unwise to us for the company to have any debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. On the bright side, we note that trailing twelve month EBIT is worse than the free cash flow of CN¥49m and the profit of CN¥28m. So one might argue that there's still a chance it can get things on the right track. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Baoding Technology you should be aware of.

尽管收入有所增长,但保鼎科技去年仍有息税前收益(EBIT)亏损。事实上,它在息税前利润水平上损失了5300万元人民币。当我们审视这一点并回顾其资产负债表上相对于现金的负债时,对我们来说,公司有任何债务似乎是不明智的。坦率地说,我们认为资产负债表远非匹配,尽管可以随着时间的推移而改善。好的一面是,我们注意到过去十二个月的息税前利润低于4900万元人民币的自由现金流和2800万元人民币的利润。因此,有人可能会争辩说,它仍然有可能使事情走上正轨。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中学到的关于债务的知识最多。但归根结底,每家公司都可以控制资产负债表之外存在的风险。一个很好的例子:我们发现了宝鼎科技的1个警告信号,你应该注意。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

归根结底,通常最好将注意力集中在没有净负债的公司身上。您可以访问我们的此类公司的特别名单(所有公司都有利润增长记录)。它是免费的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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