In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. So we wouldn't blame long term Ganso Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603886) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 18% over a half decade. Furthermore, it's down 15% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 15% in the same timeframe.
Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, Ganso actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 0.4% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
Given that EPS has increased, but the share price has fallen, it's fair to say that market sentiment around the stock has become more negative. Generally speaking, though, if the company can keep growing EPS then the share price will eventually follow.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on Ganso's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Ganso the TSR over the last 5 years was 6.1%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
Although it hurts that Ganso returned a loss of 12% in the last twelve months, the broader market was actually worse, returning a loss of 25%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 1.2% for each year. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Ganso better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Ganso you should know about.
But note: Ganso may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
