Unum Group (NYSE:UNM) came out with its yearly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$12b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 3.4% to hit US$6.50 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Unum Group are now predicting revenues of US$12.9b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a credible 4.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 16% to US$7.70. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$12.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.64 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$56.55. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Unum Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$64.00 and the most bearish at US$50.00 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Unum Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Unum Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Unum Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 4.0% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.6% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 5.7% annually. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Unum Group is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Unum Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$56.55, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Unum Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also view our analysis of Unum Group's balance sheet, and whether we think Unum Group is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
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