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美国1月非农数据大超预期 给降息预期“泼冷水”

US non-agricultural data for January surpassed expectations and “threw cold water” on expectations of interest rate cuts

Zhitong Finance ·  Feb 2 08:53

The US non-farm payrolls increased by 353,000 after the January seasonal adjustment, the biggest increase since January 2023.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that data released on Friday showed that the US non-farm payrolls increased by 353,000 after the January seasonal adjustment, the biggest increase since January 2023. It is expected to be 180,000, compared to the previous value of 216,000. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%. Wages are faster than a month ago, and the increase is the highest since March 2022.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment growth is mainly in the fields of professional and business services, health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Employment rates have declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industries.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said that in January, the unemployment rate reached 3.7% for the third month in a row, and the number of unemployed remained at 6.1 million, with little change.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics also said that the number of new non-farm payrolls increased from 173,000 to 182,000 in November last year; the number of new non-farm payrolls increased from 216,000 to 333,000 in December. After these revisions, the total number of new jobs added in November and December increased by 126,000 compared to before the revisions.

In 2023, the number of employed people increased by an average of 255,000 people per month.

Goldman Sachs asset management analyst Lindsay Rosner said that today's employment data and strong average hourly wage may have overshadowed the market. The statement that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in March is “highly unlikely” seems appropriate. Whether the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in March or May, this shift has already taken place. In this strong economic environment, monetary policy will be the driving force for fixed income investors.

After the release of the non-agricultural data, the swap market showed a decline in bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in March. The swap market is no longer fully priced. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in May.

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