Hangzhou Freely Communication Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603602) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 28% share price drop in the last month. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 24% share price drop.
Even after such a large drop in price, given close to half the companies in China have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 27x, you may still consider Hangzhou Freely Communication as a stock to avoid entirely with its 72.9x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
Earnings have risen at a steady rate over the last year for Hangzhou Freely Communication, which is generally not a bad outcome. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this good earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Hangzhou Freely Communication's earnings, revenue and cash flow.Is There Enough Growth For Hangzhou Freely Communication?
Hangzhou Freely Communication's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 4.4% gain to the company's bottom line. Still, EPS has barely risen at all in aggregate from three years ago, which is not ideal. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.
This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 41% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.
With this information, we find it concerning that Hangzhou Freely Communication is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
What We Can Learn From Hangzhou Freely Communication's P/E?
A significant share price dive has done very little to deflate Hangzhou Freely Communication's very lofty P/E. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
We've established that Hangzhou Freely Communication currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Hangzhou Freely Communication that you should be aware of.
You might be able to find a better investment than Hangzhou Freely Communication. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.