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More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Suzhou Yangtze New Materials Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:002652) Shares After Tumbling 27%

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 3 07:04

The Suzhou Yangtze New Materials Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002652) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 27%. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 17% share price drop.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, when almost half of the companies in China's Packaging industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.9x, you may still consider Suzhou Yangtze New Materials as a stock probably not worth researching with its 2.7x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SZSE:002652 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 2nd 2024

How Suzhou Yangtze New Materials Has Been Performing

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Suzhou Yangtze New Materials over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Suzhou Yangtze New Materials, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Suzhou Yangtze New Materials' Revenue Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Suzhou Yangtze New Materials would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 15%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 70% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 22% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Suzhou Yangtze New Materials is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What Does Suzhou Yangtze New Materials' P/S Mean For Investors?

There's still some elevation in Suzhou Yangtze New Materials' P/S, even if the same can't be said for its share price recently. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Suzhou Yangtze New Materials currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Suzhou Yangtze New Materials that you need to take into consideration.

If you're unsure about the strength of Suzhou Yangtze New Materials' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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