With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 15.2x China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600999) may be sending bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios greater than 28x and even P/E's higher than 50x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for China Merchants Securities as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the dismal earnings performance to persist, which has repressed the P/E. You'd much rather the company wasn't bleeding earnings if you still believe in the business. Or at the very least, you'd be hoping the earnings slide doesn't get any worse if your plan is to pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
How Is China Merchants Securities' Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, China Merchants Securities would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 11%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 15% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 18% during the coming year according to the seven analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 41% growth , the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.
With this information, we can see why China Merchants Securities is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It seems most investors are expecting to see limited future growth and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.
The Bottom Line On China Merchants Securities' P/E
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
As we suspected, our examination of China Merchants Securities' analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for China Merchants Securities that you should be aware of.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
