The Shanghai Shenqi Pharmaceutical Investment Management Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600613) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 26%. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 33% in that time.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, Shanghai Shenqi Pharmaceutical Investment Management may still be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 51.2x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 26x and even P/E's lower than 16x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Shanghai Shenqi Pharmaceutical Investment Management over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.
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Does Growth Match The High P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Shanghai Shenqi Pharmaceutical Investment Management's to be considered reasonable.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 15%. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.
Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 42% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.
In light of this, it's alarming that Shanghai Shenqi Pharmaceutical Investment Management's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Bottom Line On Shanghai Shenqi Pharmaceutical Investment Management's P/E
Shanghai Shenqi Pharmaceutical Investment Management's shares may have retreated, but its P/E is still flying high. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
Our examination of Shanghai Shenqi Pharmaceutical Investment Management revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Shanghai Shenqi Pharmaceutical Investment Management (1 is potentially serious) you should be aware of.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.