China Master Logistics Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603967) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 26% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 24% in that time.
Following the heavy fall in price, given about half the companies in China have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 27x, you may consider China Master Logistics as a highly attractive investment with its 11.5x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so limited.
For example, consider that China Master Logistics' financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the disappointing earnings performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/E. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Is There Any Growth For China Master Logistics?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as depressed as China Master Logistics' is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market decidedly.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 1.5%. Regardless, EPS has managed to lift by a handy 27% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 42% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.
In light of this, it's understandable that China Master Logistics' P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on to something they believe will continue to trail the bourse.
What We Can Learn From China Master Logistics' P/E?
Shares in China Master Logistics have plummeted and its P/E is now low enough to touch the ground. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
We've established that China Master Logistics maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its recent three-year growth being lower than the wider market forecast, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with China Master Logistics, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
You might be able to find a better investment than China Master Logistics. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
