The Xiamen Sunrise Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002593) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 30%. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 30% share price drop.
Even after such a large drop in price, given close to half the companies in China have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 26x, you may still consider Xiamen Sunrise Group as a stock to avoid entirely with its 67.7x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
For instance, Xiamen Sunrise Group's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
Does Growth Match The High P/E?
Xiamen Sunrise Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 35%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 67% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 41% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.
With this information, we find it concerning that Xiamen Sunrise Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
The Key Takeaway
A significant share price dive has done very little to deflate Xiamen Sunrise Group's very lofty P/E. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
Our examination of Xiamen Sunrise Group revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 3 warning signs for Xiamen Sunrise Group (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
You might be able to find a better investment than Xiamen Sunrise Group. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.