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DuZhe Publish&Media Co.,Ltd's (SHSE:603999) 26% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 6 06:15

DuZhe Publish&Media Co.,Ltd (SHSE:603999) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month, dropping 26% and undoing the prior period's positive performance. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 15% share price drop.

Even after such a large drop in price, given around half the companies in China have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 26x, you may still consider DuZhe Publish&MediaLtd as a stock to potentially avoid with its 32.1x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

The recent earnings growth at DuZhe Publish&MediaLtd would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. It might be that many expect the reasonable earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

pe-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:603999 Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry February 5th 2024
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on DuZhe Publish&MediaLtd's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

DuZhe Publish&MediaLtd's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 5.3%. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 33% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 41% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it concerning that DuZhe Publish&MediaLtd is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

DuZhe Publish&MediaLtd's P/E hasn't come down all the way after its stock plunged. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that DuZhe Publish&MediaLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for DuZhe Publish&MediaLtd (1 is potentially serious) you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of DuZhe Publish&MediaLtd's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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