To the annoyance of some shareholders, Anshan Senyuan Road and Bridge Co., Ltd (SZSE:300210) shares are down a considerable 30% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. Looking at the bigger picture, even after this poor month the stock is up 96% in the last year.
Although its price has dipped substantially, given around half the companies in China's Machinery industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2.3x, you may still consider Anshan Senyuan Road and Bridge as a stock to avoid entirely with its 17.9x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.
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How Has Anshan Senyuan Road and Bridge Performed Recently?
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Anshan Senyuan Road and Bridge over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Anshan Senyuan Road and Bridge's earnings, revenue and cash flow.Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?
Anshan Senyuan Road and Bridge's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.
In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 18%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 53% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 27% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Anshan Senyuan Road and Bridge's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
What Does Anshan Senyuan Road and Bridge's P/S Mean For Investors?
A significant share price dive has done very little to deflate Anshan Senyuan Road and Bridge's very lofty P/S. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
Our examination of Anshan Senyuan Road and Bridge revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Anshan Senyuan Road and Bridge, and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.