Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial Group Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600738) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 29% share price drop in the last month. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 46% in that time.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, given close to half the companies in China have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 26x, you may still consider Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial GroupLtd as a stock to avoid entirely with its 68.1x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
For instance, Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial GroupLtd's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.
Is There Enough Growth For Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial GroupLtd?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial GroupLtd would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 73%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 66% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 41% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.
With this information, we find it concerning that Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial GroupLtd is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
What We Can Learn From Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial GroupLtd's P/E?
Even after such a strong price drop, Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial GroupLtd's P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.
We've established that Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial GroupLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 5 warning signs for Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial GroupLtd (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial GroupLtd. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.